Wanna get a forecast for the EU and Europe in 2030 and some insights of the strategic planning and soul of EPP, plus Think Tank expectations from more than 15 European Countries? Come to Cadenabbia! It was my 12th KAS Workshop on European Issues, vulgo #EuroComo, a great occassion for brainstorming and expert back ground talks in the first German Chancellor holiday Villa la Collina at Como Lake. As always, the event was a fantastic gathering of leaders, policymakers, and experts to discuss and strategize on the key challenges and opportunities facing the EU. As I am not party affiliated, representing the biggest German network on EU affairs in Germany, I am particulary grateful, to get Chatham House ensured insights about the European Peoples Party and its German member party CDU and KAS. Very democratic.
Interactive scenario sessions were a key part of the event, where participants collaborated to identify and assess key drivers influencing the EU’s future, creating plausible scenarios for its development. Networking opportunities were abundant.
The #eurocomo days focused on interpreting the scenarios and their implications for the EU, culminating in an open discussion where participants shared their conclusions and feedback. The event emphasized the importance of democratic engagement, transparency, and collaboration in strengthening the EU.
My this year’s observation from this year’s #EuroComo:
- Europe is Parliament and Commission are already democratically set. There is an informal coaltion of democratic parties set. The missunderstanding of the Spitzenkandidaten concept is replaced by a representative parliament election of Ursula von der Leyen, who prefers not to be binded, but will be controlled by EPP more than ever. Right and some left wing authoritarian nationalist parties will be able to ennoy but not able to destroy the democratic European majority.
- However national member parties are not yet fit for Europe wide party strategies. The European dimension of policy shaping and law making is still delibereatly concealed. The help of German greens to elect von der Leyen will be silenced in Eastern German state election campaigns. Meloni will get her bit of power in the Commission. But as a prime minister, not as a right wing party leader.
- Christian Democrates in Germany look positively at next year’s Federal elections. CDU/CSU’s “Key Priorities for the Future EU Agenda,” emphasize the importance of a free, secure, economically strong, and capable Europe. Key points included the development of a European defense industry, the positive impacts of the Green Deal, and even ongoing discussions about treaty changes. How much this will pay into day-to-day bashing of the Berlin bubble towards Brussels, let’s see. That the German liberals and part of the Federal Government coaltion voted against Von der Leyen, will make life not easy in German public debate.
- But apart AfD and BSW, German parties are agreeing on the reborn cry out for Freedom and Democracy for the continent: The colossal task of enlarging and deepening the EU in an pan-European integration landscape under attack was never such a huge complex political and lobby exercice. It is understandable, that democrats from Ukraine or Georgia get nervous. Too many interests of lobby and action groups will overshadow a smooth adaption of candidate countries to the multilevel political system. However, Putin made the impossible possible. The democratic centre in Europe is open for enlargement. Fulfilling the criteria is however key.
- After the fall of Berlin Wall, I could follow all “waves” of enlargement from Brussels, Bratislava and Zagreb, from idealistic perspective in the European youth forum and JEF and professionally for the German Foreign office. The #EuroComo think tankers and civil servants (from Croatia, Poland and Latvia) underlined the great expertice of former transformation countries. Much better than the often arrogant Western expertice 20 years ago.
- Meeting the intensity of the multilevel political system and law-making. It was amazing encouraging, that Realpolitik is slowly changing the often willingly meaningless “civil society framing” of former enlargement processes. Copenhague Criteria don’t speak of “civil society” but democracy, rule of law and free markets. Identifying pluralistic interests, both in candidate countries and in the EU is key to break populist resistence. Europe shall be made of societies not just of states. Representative democracy and networked pluralism are prerequisites for the success of European integration.
- Also at Eurocomo I loved to provoce the EPP/CDU world with the frozen Turkish candidate country elephant. Generally sticking to accession criteria, might put EPP into a strategic trap. It looks more than ever, that pro European İmamoğlu might become the next Turkish president. What if Türkiye seriously starts to activelly fulfill Copenhagen Criteria? For EPP, “only” the colossal task to integrate another big country would remain as a strong argument against Türkiye, or… pure racism or anti-islamism of a then again secular and pluralistic country…